Bubba Chandler is scheduled to start for the Pittsburgh Pirates in the series opener at Rogers Centre on May 22, a test that will measure whether the right-handed pitcher’s recent run is the turning point Pittsburgh hoped for when it inserted him into the rotation this season.
Chandler arrives at the mound with numbers that explain the noise and the concern: he is 1-5 in nine starts with a 5.14 ERA across 42.0 innings, 36 strikeouts and 30 walks, a.213 batting average against and a 1.52 WHIP. His arsenal — a fastball that has touched 100 mph and a changeup and slider he has used to baffle hitters — has flashed the upside that prompted the club to make him part of the rotation after his MLB debut last August.
The weight of those figures has been offset, however, by the last three starts, in which Chandler allowed two earned runs over 16.2 innings while fanning 19 batters and issuing no walks. That mini-surge is not small: it represents the most sustained command he has shown so far this year and provides a concrete reason to watch his May 22 outing closely.
Context matters here. The Pirates entered the season with playoff aspirations, and there was genuine anticipation when Chandler was steady-handed enough to stick as a starter after his call-up last August. The rotation around him has been a strength this year, which makes Chandler’s inconsistency more notable: a rotation that can carry a club to October needs back-end starts that are at least league average, and the Pirates have counted on him to deliver innings and swing the balance when starters need a break.
The friction in Chandler’s story is obvious. Across his professional career he has struggled with command, and this year those problems have shown up as trouble locating his pitches and handling pressure. The season totals — 30 walks in 42.0 innings and a 1.52 WHIP — are the hard proof of that trouble. Yet the last three starts produced zero walks and a dominant strikeout total, which suggests either a mechanical correction, a mental unlock, or a short-term hot streak that may not hold.
That contradiction sets up a clear tension for Tuesday’s game at Rogers Centre: will Chandler replicate the control he displayed over those 16.2 innings, or will the command issues that marked the rest of his season reassert themselves against a Toronto lineup? The answers will matter for more than his personal record. If he continues to showcase a 100 mph heater paired with reliable changeup and slider usage and keeps walks at bay, the Pirates gain a rotation arm who can eat innings and help preserve the bullpen over a long stretch. If the walks return, Pittsburgh’s margin for error shrinks at a time when it is chasing a postseason berth.
There is a final practical point beneath the numbers: Chandler’s growth or regression is not an abstract development. The Pirates made him a starter after his debut last August because they believed his stuff could play at the major-league level. The last three starts are the best evidence to date that the belief can be rewarded; his season-long walk rate and elevated ERA are the evidence that belief might be premature.
What matters most now is whether Chandler can do in Toronto what he did in his recent run — go multiple innings without a walk while missing bats with his heater and off-speed pitches. If he repeats the two earned runs across 16.2 innings, 19 strikeouts and no walks at Rogers Centre, he will have altered the conversation about Pittsburgh’s rotation and its playoff chances; if he does not, the questions about his command and handling pressure will only grow louder.
