Jannik Sinner begins the French Open on Sunday as the heaviest favourite for the Coupe des Mousquetaires since Rafael Nadal.
That is not hyperbole. This season Sinner has lost only two of his 38 matches — to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open and to Jakub Mensik in Doha — and he arrives having won his past 29 matches. He has swept the clay-court swing, taking three big titles and the past six Masters tournaments, and last week defeated Casper Ruud 6-4, 6-4 in the Rome final.
The numbers explain why the talk in Paris is different. A 29-match winning run and a run of six consecutive Masters victories are the kind of momentum that bends draws toward a single name. Novak Djokovic captured the mood plainly: "He's maybe in the form of his life, and without Carlos being here increases his chances of claiming more Grand Slam titles," Djokovic said. He added the reminder of sport’s counterweight: "But we are all here to try to win against him and prevent him from taking more titles."
Context makes the weight of those words immediate. The key narrative in the men’s game over the past two seasons has been the battle for supremacy between Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz has been ruled out of the French Open and Wimbledon with a wrist injury, removing one half of that recent two-horse race and sharpening the spotlight on Sinner’s next steps at Roland Garros.
That spotlight reveals tension. Dominance on paper still has to be negotiated ball by ball on clay, and opponents believe Sinner’s blend of pace and placement leaves them little room for error. Ruud, who lost to Sinner in Rome, warned of the relentless nature of his game: "The thing that makes him so good is you get no breathing room from any corner," he said. "Whether you're playing a forehand cross-court rally, or a backhand cross-court rally, you know the ball will come at a high pace and typically good placement as well." Ruud emphasised the margin for error: "You know if you're not very precise with your own shots then he will get on top of you and punish you," and added, "You know every shot needs to be close to perfect."
Those assessments frame the practical problem for anyone hoping to stop Sinner at Roland Garros: matching speed and staying error-free long enough to force him off rhythm. They also explain why Djokovic, a direct rival and one of the two players to beat Sinner this year, still views the 24-year-old as the man to beat even with the field assembled in Paris.
FilmoGaz’s read, on the record of results and the field present, is straightforward: Sinner is the clearest favourite anyone has seen at the French Open in years. The unanswered and most consequential question now is whether a challenger with ideal form and the precision Ruud described exists in the draw to end a streak that already includes 29 straight wins and the last six Masters titles.
