Craig Counsell faces the immediate fallout of a stretch that has seen the Cubs lose nine of 11 games since April 9 and slip out of first place into second, 1 1/2 games behind the Brewers as they open a three-game series against the Astros.
The weight of that slide is plain in the numbers: the Cubs have been outscored 59-31 in the stretch, are batting just.182, and have been held to three runs or fewer in nine of those games. They have, oddly, outhomered opponents 20-7 during the same span — a power spike that has not translated into runs.
That power-versus-production gap helps explain how the Brewers were able to take three straight from Chicago this week and knock the Cubs from a first-place perch they had held since the first day of the month.
The context is stark on both sides: the Astros themselves are 4-8 since April 9, 11 games under.500 and fourth in the AL West, and have been outscored 52-23 while batting.186 and averaging 1.9 runs a game over the same stretch. Both clubs arrive at this matchup with offenses searching for answers.
The tension is in the contradictions. Chicago’s recent home run edge suggests a line-drive, slugging solution, but the club’s overall.182 batting average and the wind — blowing in for all three games, according to the app Wrigley Winds — blunt the advantage. Meanwhile the rotation has been uneven: Shota Imanaga is the only Cubs starter to throw more than five innings in the club’s last two full turns through the rotation, after a seven-inning, two-run outing in a 4-1 loss to the Braves was followed by a 4 1/3-inning, eight-run night in a 9-3 loss to the Brewers.
Chicago’s lineup slumps compound the problem. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ian Happ have four hits in their last 37 at-bats combined; Dansby Swanson is 5-for-34; Moises Ballesteros is 1-for-18; and Matt Shaw is hitless in 14 at-bats. That drop-off helps explain why the team’s homers haven’t produced wins.
Rotation uncertainty adds another layer. Edward Cabrera was lifted after one pitch in the fourth inning on Wednesday because of a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand, and the Cubs should know by Friday whether he can make his next start. If Cabrera is cleared, manager Craig Counsell might push Imanaga to a sixth day of rest and use Ben Brown on Sunday; Jameson Taillon is scheduled for Friday and Colin Rea for Saturday.
The Astros are carrying injuries of their own. They already are missing Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier with shoulder strains, and this week placed Lance McCullers on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. Even so, Alex Bregman has hit well during the slide — batting.286 with 12 hits in the stretch — though the club’s offense overall has sputtered. Yordan Alvarez put it plainly: "I think right now we’re struggling a little bit," a summary that matches the team’s 4-8 record since April 9.
Which side of the struggle matters more this weekend. The Cubs’ problems are clearer in volume: nine low-scoring outings, a.182 average and a 59-31 run deficit in 11 games make this more than a temporary hiccup. The Astros’ wounded pitching staff and low scoring give the Cubs a chance, but the wind and the Cubs’ own inconsistency make that chance thin.
Counsell summed up the situation simply and forcefully: "We’re in a funk right now, and it’s up to us to change it," and this three-game Cubs game will be the team’s first clear opportunity to prove whether it can.
