Los Angeles mayoral challenger Nithya Raman has pulled into a dead heat with Mayor Karen Bass and comedian Spencer Pratt in a new poll released Thursday, sharpening a race that until now had looked like a Bass runoff to lose. The survey put Bass at 26% among likely voters, Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22%, with just 10% still undecided.
The poll, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times, surveyed 1,913 registered voters, including 1,351 likely voters, from May 19 to 24. With a margin of error of around 3 percentage points in either direction, the latest numbers leave open the possibility that any of the three could advance to a runoff. Mark DiCamillo, the pollster, said the contest comes down to turnout because the candidates represent very different constituencies and all are clustered within the margin of error.
The result marks a sharp shift from the previous Berkeley IGS survey, taken March 9 to 15, when Bass led with 25% of likely voters, Raman had 17% and Pratt had 14%. Since then, Bass has gained 1 point, while Raman and Pratt have each gained 8. The field is crowded, with 14 candidates in Tuesday’s primary, but Bass, Raman and Pratt have been the only three to consistently show real traction. Rae Huang drew 9% of likely voters in the new poll, and Adam Miller had 5%.
Money also shows how competitive the race has become. Through the May 16 filing period, Pratt reported $3.26 million in contributions and Bass $3.13 million. Raman reported more than $931,000, including a $60,000 loan to her campaign, and received $1.25 million in matching funds. Those totals underline how differently the campaigns have been built even as the poll shows them fighting over the same slice of the electorate.
The race has been shaped by the same three issues throughout: homelessness, housing affordability and public safety. Raman has pressed Bass on the cost of the Inside Safe program for the unhoused, arguing that its high price is not sustainable. Bass, meanwhile, remains the incumbent and the best-known figure in the field, but the new numbers suggest that advantage no longer guarantees a clean path to the Nov. 3 runoff.
The one likely governor of the race now is uncertainty. In a head-to-head runoff between Bass and Raman, Raman would lead 32% to 28% among registered voters, although a quarter of likely voters said they would choose neither or would not vote and 15% were undecided. That is a warning for both campaigns: Bass can no longer assume she is safely ahead, and Raman still has to convert momentum into turnout at the primary ballot box on Tuesday.
For Los Angeles voters, the meaning of Thursday’s poll is simple. The mayoral race that looked settled enough to model around Bass is now open, and the next question is not whether Raman has broken through, but whether she can do it fast enough to make the runoff herself.
