Shohei Ohtani entered the 2026 season recovered from his second Tommy John surgery, publicly targeting the National League Cy Young and opening as a 46% favorite in the Kalshi market to win another Most Valuable Player Award.
That market share — Kalshi put Ohtani at 46%, with the rest of the National League field sharing the remaining 54% — arrived on top of a resume few modern players can match: three consecutive MVP trophies won unanimously and a two-way 2025 season that included 55 home runs and a 1.014 OPS at the plate, plus 14 starts on the mound with a 2.87 ERA.
The numbers that follow him into 2026 make the stakes plain. On a per-162-game basis calculated Ohtani’s averages entering the season as a 13-7 record, a 3.00 ERA, a 143 ERA+ and 228 strikeouts, and listed him at 5.5 bWAR. Sports Illustrated noted the extraordinary context: "Shohei Ohtani entered the 2026 season with three consecutive MVP trophies, winning them all with unanimous voting." The same outlet added that "The market still clearly sees him being the person to beat for the rest of the field currently sitting at a 46% chance to walk away with another title at the end of the season."
Those figures create the weight behind the headline: Ohtani is not only chasing pitching hardware but also carrying the offensive ceiling that has made him unique. framed his Cy Young pursuit bluntly: "If Ohtani does indeed win his first Cy Young Award, there is a very good chance he'll also take home his fourth straight Most Valuable Player Award."
Context matters here because Ohtani’s path to a Cy Young requires more than dominance over innings he actually throws. pointed out that he has qualified for an ERA title just once, that the Dodgers — the team he pitches for — have the luxury of slow-playing their starting pitchers until the postseason, and that his hitting volume "has been turned down a tad." Those constraints mean the bid is as much about quantity as about quality: the Dodgers can protect his arm and his bat at the same time, but that protection limits counting stats pitchers typically need for award recognition.
The tension is immediate. Ohtani’s two-way value inflates his WAR and his public profile, and it helps explain why markets and outlets treat him as the default favorite. Yet he made only 14 starts last season, and his history includes a recent second Tommy John procedure — a fact that cuts both ways. He is evidently healthy enough to headline preseason hopes, but the Dodgers’ ability to manage innings, plus the club’s tendency to ease starters through the regular season, leaves open whether he will log the innings needed to qualify for rate-based awards or to shape voters’ perceptions in a full-season race.
Juan Soto was the next closest challenger in the market, Sports Illustrated reported, with a 13% chance. The arithmetic on a Cy Young push is simple on paper and complicated in practice: Ohtani needs enough starts and effectiveness to outpace pitchers who will accumulate innings uninterrupted. A season that repeats last year’s 2.87 ERA over a larger workload would answer questions; a cautious workload tailored to preserve his bat would not.
That balance will be watched closely by fans and teammates; Mookie Betts has already moved to defend Ohtani amid early-season scrutiny of his bat (see the run-up at Analysts will also track how his ERA holds up if it climbs from the sub-1.00 projections some models flirt with (see context and implications at For now, the simplest fact drives the story: Ohtani is the market favorite because he is both the best hitter-and-pitcher package in the game and the riskiest candidate for heavy innings.
Everything that follows this spring hinges on one decision the Dodgers and Ohtani will make together — whether to push for a Cy Young by increasing his pitching volume or to protect the two-way weapon and effectively trade a pitching award chance for long-term availability and offensive output. Given his recovery, his recent production and the market backing, the choice will determine whether this season is remembered for a fourth straight MVP coronation, a first Cy Young in a dual role, or a deliberate preservation of a once-in-a-generation talent.
