TD Cowen this week raised its price target on Strategy (MSTR) to $400 and maintained a buy rating, a move that lands while the shares were trading near $166 and implies more than 140% upside.
The call rests on the scale of Strategy’s bitcoin hoard: the company holds 843,738 BTC, a stake worth roughly $64 billion in one report and about $65.25 billion in another — more than 4% of bitcoin’s total supply cap. TD Cowen calculated that bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares rose to 2.21 from 1.95 at the end of 2025, and projected bitcoin-related gains to top $15 billion in 2026.
That math has real consequences for investors. Between May 11 and May 17, Strategy added 24,869 BTC at a cost of about $2.01 billion. The company’s current acquisition cost for its bitcoin holdings was placed at $63.88 billion in one report, producing roughly $1.50 billion of unrealized profit on the position. TD Cowen said its new $400 target and buy stance reflect the company’s growing bitcoin exposure and the leverage that exposure gives to the share price.
The balance-sheet moves behind those numbers are blunt and recent. In the second quarter, Strategy raised about $1.95 billion through a preferred share issuance, and most of those proceeds were directed toward bitcoin purchases. This week, however, the company paused fresh BTC buys and repurchased about $1.5 billion in face value of its 0% convertible senior notes due 2029 for approximately $1.38 billion in cash — a buyback at a discount that reduces future dilution.
Strategy has also funded bitcoin purchases through equity sales and convertible notes, and has been parking some capital in short-duration U.S. Treasuries and money-market instruments as it manages liquidity. The company still carries roughly $3 billion in convertible notes with put rights beginning in June 2028, a reported constraint that shapes decisions around cash and repurchases.
Michael Saylor, the company’s public face, framed the bond repurchase exactly this week: "This week we bought bonds, not bitcoin. The ₿itVac is charging." Saylor’s comment underlines the tension between accumulating bitcoin on the balance sheet and shoring up capital structure by retiring discounted debt.
That tension is the story’s friction point. TD Cowen expects Strategy to buy close to 100,000 BTC in the second quarter alone — a pace that would materially raise bitcoin per-share metrics and support the $400 target — but Strategy has already shown it will divert proceeds to debt repurchases and other liquidity uses. The company’s recent conversion of preferred issuance into bitcoin purchases, the short-term parking of cash in Treasuries, and the repurchase of convertible notes all pull in different directions for the stock.
For investors watching mstr stock, the next moves matter more than the target number. If Strategy resumes aggressive BTC acquisition and approaches TD Cowen’s near-100,000 BTC purchase estimate for the quarter, the price target becomes a live possibility; if the company prioritizes debt repurchases and cash buffers instead, the path to $400 grows steeper. The single most consequential question now is whether Strategy will return to net bitcoin buying at the scale TD Cowen expects — a choice that will determine whether the firm's $400 valuation is credible or simply aspirational.
